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Realism, Conservatism, and Tiered Ecological Risk Assessment
Citation:
Etterson, M. Realism, Conservatism, and Tiered Ecological Risk Assessment. Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) North America, Pittsburgh, PA, November 13 - 17, 2022. https://doi.org/10.23645/epacomptox.21603303
Impact/Purpose:
Poster presented to the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) annual meeting November 2022. This presentation is intended for a general risk assessment audience interested in the use of models for ecological risk assessment. The presentation highlights potential conflicts between two model strategies for ecological risk assessment. Methods for studying and reconciling the two are suggested.
Description:
Recent research has provided valuable momentum for the development and use of population models for ecological risk assessment (ERA). In general, ERA proceeds along a tiered strategy, with conservative assumptions deployed at lower tiers that are relaxed at higher tiers with ever more realistic models. As the tier increases, so do the levels of time and effort required by the assessor. When faced with many stressors, species, and habitats, risk assessors need to find efficiencies. Conservative lower-tier approaches are well established, but higher-tier models of-ten prioritize accuracy, and conservative approaches are relatively unexplored at higher tiers. A principle of efficiency for ecological modeling for population-level ecological risk assessment is articulated and evaluated against a conceptual model and an existing set of avian models for chemical risk assessment. Here, four published avian models are reviewed in increasing order of realism (risk quotient →Markov chain nest productivity model → endogenous lifecycle model → spatially explicit population model). Models are compared in a pairwise fashion according to in-creasing realism and evaluated as to whether conservatism increases or decreases with each step. The principle of efficiency is shown to be a challenging ideal, though some cause for optimism is identified. Strategies are suggested for studying efficiency in tiered ecological model deployment.
URLs/Downloads:
DOI: Realism, Conservatism, and Tiered Ecological Risk Assessment
ETTERSONPOSTER.R2.PDF (PDF, NA pp, 445.193 KB, about PDF)